Beyond Oil: The View from Hubbert's Peak

“This book explains both why the decline of our most precious fuel is inevitable and how challenging it will be to cope with what comes next.”—Richard E. Smalley, University Professor, Rice University, and 1996 Nobel laureate

 

With world oil production about to peak and inexorably head toward steep decline, what fuels are available to meet rising global energy demands? That question, once thought to address a fairly remote contingency, has become ever more urgent, as a spate of books has drawn increased public attention to the imminent exhaustion of the economically vital world oil reserves. Kenneth S. Deffeyes, a geologist who was among the first to warn of the coming oil crisis, now takes the next logical step and turns his attention to the earth’s supply of potential replacement fuels. In Beyond Oil, he traces out their likely production futures, with special reference to that of oil, utilizing the same analytic tools developed by his former colleague, the pioneering petroleum-supply authority M. King Hubbert.

“The bad news in this book is made bearable by the author’s witty, conversational writing style. If my college econ textbooks had been written this way, I might have learned economics.” —Rupert Cutler, The Roanoke Times

Kenneth S. Deffeyes is Professor Emeritus at Princeton University. His previous book, Hubbert's Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage, was published in 2001.

With world oil production about to peak and inexorably headed toward steep decline, what fuels are available to meet rising global energy demands? That question has become ever more urgent as public attention to the imminent exhaustion of the economically vital world oil reserves has increased. Kenneth S. Deffeyes, a geologist who was among the first to warn of the coming oil crisis, now takes the next logical step and turns his attention to the earth’s supply of potential replacement fuels. In Beyond Oil, he traces out their likely production futures, with special reference to that of oil, using the same analytic tools developed by his former colleague, the pioneering petroleum-supply authority M. King Hubbert.

 

An acknowledged expert in the field, Deffeyes brings a deeply informed yet optimistic approach to bear on the growing debate. His main concern is not our long-term adaptation to a world beyond oil but our immediate future: "Through our inattention, we have wasted the years that we might have used to prepare for lessened oil supplies. The next ten years are critical."

"This work would be useful as a current holding for serving students of political science, economics, science, and technology."—W.C. Peters, Choice

"[Beyond Oil] is an authoritative, explicit, and timely view of energy alternatives in the coming exhaustion of the world's vital petroleum reserves. In clear and delightfully readable prose, Deffeyes (Princeton Univ.) uses insightful balance and aggressive analysis coupled with his own appropriate geological anecdotes and memories to view the capabilities of the replacement fuels that must be considered for use in the near future . . . Lightly illustrated, footnoted, and indexed, this book is intended to provide an intelligent readership with an appreciation for the temporal and technical aspects of postpetroleum energy considerations. This work would be useful as a current holding for serving students of political science, economics, science, and technology."—W.C. Peters, Choice
 
"There is valuable information to be gleaned from this thoughtful and entertaining book . . . Deffeyes combines his expertise in science in general and geology in particular with anecdotes from his extensive work in the private sector as a petroleum geologist to assess potential alternatives to oil . . . For each, he describes its geological origins and the engineering difficulties that are associated with its production. In addition, he offers many engineering rules of thumb that influence the economic viability of the alternatives. Better than any economic cost-benefit analysis, this combination of theory and practical know-how gives the reader a better feel as to why there is still no obvious alternative to oil. As such, these chapters are ideal for non-specialists and undergraduates who are convinced that the world will eventually need a replacement for oil but wonder why people shy away from this need every time the price of oil drops from its most recent peak . . . Readers should remember that the book uses a methodology that generated a remarkably accurate forecast for one of the most important economic events in the twentieth century. And that creates the book's real take-home message: even if production does not peak in 2005, we all need to know that Hubbert's peak is coming soon, and we had better start thinking about a future without oil."—Robert K. Kaufmann, Nature
 
"If my college econ textbooks had been written this way I might have learned economics."—Rupert Cutler, The Roanoke Times
 
"Deffeyes is an amiable guide. With a consultant-cum-Rotarian's ease, he explores the angst from the downslide of geologist M. King Hubbert's predicted high point of production."—Jane Holtz Kay, The Christian Science Monitor
 
"We are all hooked on oil, and oil is getting scarcer. Like it or not, changes are coming. But do we understand our choices, or even the variables that control our choices? Using aggressive analysis, common sense, and a liberal dash of humor, Deffeyes lays out our options. It's your life, your choices, your future; you can't afford to miss this book"—Brian J. Skinner, Eugene Higgins Professor of Geology and Geophysics, Yale University
 
"With his folksy style and penetrating vision, Deffeyes tells it like it is. Beyond Oil is another nail in the coffin of the age of oil."—David Goodstein, vice provost, California Institute of Technology, and author of Out of Gas: The End of the Age of Oil
 
"A valuable encore to Hubbert's Peak, this new book by Professor Deffeyes offers a wide-ranging overview of the world's energy alternatives 'beyond oil.' Its crystal-clear prose, easily understood by the layman, is peppered with anecdotes, memories, and scientific insights, mirroring the author's half century of first-hand experience in the industry."—A. M. Samsam Bakhtiari, senior expert, National Iranian Oil Company
 
"In his new book, Professor Deffeyes stands on the world's peak oil output like Moses peering from the mountain top to the Promised Land. Beyond Oil is a must read for anyone who wants to learn more about one of the biggest challenges humanity has ever faced."—Matthew R. Simmons, chairman, Simmons & Company International
 
"Deffeyes delves into the geophysical characteristics of the fuel's source rocks and how those affect the economics of retrieving it; he then returns the discussion to its beginning: that the world is near or on Hubbert's Peak. Deffeyes' background as an oil-company geologist and university professor lends a realistic pragmatism to his presentation, which is replete with personal anecdotes and funny remarks that enliven his text. A practical yet genial treatment."—Gilbert Taylor, Booklist

"The world is running on empty, warns petroleum geologist Deffeyes, and yet Humvees continue to roll down

• ISBN13: 9780809029570

• Condition: New

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